The year 2024 was coined a “super elections year,” with “half of the world’s population 1” going to the polls. Taiwan was no exception. With 40 percent of the votes, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) led by Lai Ching-te came out on top, closely tailed by the Kuomintang, which placed second. In power since 2016, the DPP has therefore secured an extension of its mandate by four years, indicating sustained support from the Taiwanese electorate for the party. Seen as a dissident and a threat to the Chinese dream of a “united” China, the DPP is a thorn in the side of the People’s Republic of China. The re-election of the DPP is therefore far from inconsequential.

Military and diplomatic endeavors at the heart of the conflict

While growing tensions in the Taiwan Straits—the Chinese government banking on its “grey zone” strategy—these electoral results highlight the inefficiency (or rather, insufficiency) of the Chinese strategy to cripple Taiwan’s independence efforts. The island as a whole has been a critical element of dissension between China and the United States since the Second World War.

As a strategic bastion in the American defense “perimeter 2” in the Indo-Pacific, Taiwan’s importance in the American defense strategy cannot be understated. On the other hand, China claims to whoever would like to hear it that the island is part of its territory, purporting it is its 22nd province. Ever since he was appointed General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party in 2013, Xi Jinping has repeatedly reaffirmed his desire to “retrieve” Taiwan. To do so, he has spared no effort. In 2024, approximately 3,020 Chinese jets 3 breached the Taiwanese Aerial Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), a stark increase compared to previous years.

This technique is part of a broader psychological war led against Taiwan, meant to keep the Taiwanese forces on edge. This situation is likely to get worse as the disparity in defense spending between China and Taiwan grows. While Taiwan is expected to spend around 20 billion dollars on its defense in 2025, the People’s Republic of China has already announced a shocking 222 billion dollars 4 for its defense program.

Coupled with an extensive disinformation program—Taiwan being the country most subject to foreign disinformation campaigns in the world—China’s strategy aims to reduce Taiwan's defensive capabilities. In this regard, diplomacy has also been leveraged as an effective tool to further reduce Taiwan’s international support. Two days after the re-election of the DPP, the nation of Nauru, which had been a long-term supporter of Taiwan, switched alliances and established diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China, caving under Chinese pressure. Nauru therefore joins a long list of states (i.e., Honduras, Nicaragua, Burkina Faso…) that were “poached” by Chinese diplomacy, offering economic aid and political support in exchange for a switch in allegiances.

The objectives of such tactics are twofold: of course, to weaken Taiwan’s defensive capabilities, but more importantly, to shape Taiwanese public opinion. In this respect, the Chinese multifaceted strategy is designed to instill fear and deter any independentist movement from flourishing on the island. Yet, one might argue that the threat perceived by Chinese officials of a dissident national movement fighting for autonomy is magnified to justify China’s aggressive incursions in the South China Sea. Is there a genuine and active movement the Chinese should fear, or is it merely fuel for propaganda? To answer this question, one must go back to the root of the independence movement in Taiwan.

image host Source: Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative.

The Taiwanese identity in focus and the birth of the independence movement

For most of its modern history, Taiwan has been under foreign rule. First colonized under the Qing dynasty as a way to eradicate the remnants of the Ming supporters, Taiwan was incorporated into the Chinese empire as part of its Fujian province in 1684. At the time, China’s administration of the island was very much influenced by racist stereotypes, which depicted inhabitants of “Formosa” as uncivilized individuals who partake in savage actions such as cannibalism. After the Sino-Japanese War and the subsequent Treaty of Shimonoseki of 1895, the island falls into the Japanese Empire’s hands. The Japanese administration does not stray far from its predecessor, establishing a segregationist system in favor of the freshly arrived Japanese settlers.

It is precisely at this time, however, that the first advocates for an autonomous Taiwan emerge. During the 1920s, the Taiwanese intelligentsia blossomed and contemplated for the first time an alternative to its status: not as Chinese or Japanese, but as Taiwanese. In 1921, Chiang Wei Shui, a Taiwanese activist and founding father of the independentist movement, published a satirical piece entitled Certificate of a Bedside Diagnosis. In this essay, he writes about a patient named Taiwan, aged 27 (meaning the beginning of the Japanese colonization), afflicted with a peculiar disease. Symptoms are as follows: vulgar morals, stubbornness, laziness, corruption, and shamelessness.

Subtly criticizing Japan’s deleterious influence, Chiang Wei Shui is part of a growing current at the time that advocates for more autonomy. The same year, Lin Hsien-tang, another champion of Taiwanese independence, sent a petition to the Japanese imperial parliament asking for a more autonomous administration of the island. Although his request is immediately turned down, a growing proportion of the population desires to be free of colonial shackles.

The emergence of a civil movement in Taiwan

The collapse of the Japanese empire and the exile of the Kuomintang (KMT) to Taiwan, however, reshuffled the cards in Asia, and in October 1945, Chinese troops set foot on the island once more. Taiwan is colonized for the third time in the span of a few centuries, as part of the Cairo Agreement of 1943. Heavily bombarded by the US Air Force during the last months of the Second World War and subsequently looted by the Chinese soldiers on the ground, the island is in complete disarray. As the administration set in place by the Japanese collapses—inflation and unemployment skyrocket while long-forgotten diseases like the plague and cholera resurface—the tensions between Taiwanese locals and Chinese officials arise, culminating in the event known as “Incident 228.”

On the 28th of February 1947, Chinese inspectors raided the black market in Taipei, confiscating goods from Taiwanese merchants. One of these merchants, Lin Chiang-mai, protests and, as a result, is nearly beaten to death. A brawl breaks out between Chinese inspectors and Taiwanese civilians, and a man is shot. His death launched what is today seen as the first civil movement in Taiwan’s contemporary history. Looting police stations, the protesters quickly take control of the island, demanding more freedom and a “local administration” of Taiwan. The crackdown is brutal. On the 8th of March 1947, the Chinese governor of Taiwan, Chen Yi, dispatched soldiers to Keelung, and in three months, between 18,000 and 28,000 people were killed or disappeared by the Kuomintang. In doing so, the Kuomintang essentially wipes out an entire generation, killing thousands of Taiwanese artists, historians, and intellectuals.

The ramifications of the “incident 228” are major 5. Although repressed in blood, the events of early 1947 mark the birth of a Taiwanese national movement, carried by dissident voices in exile abroad and characterized by a distrust of China, the Kuomintang, and Chiang Kai-shek. Misconstrued as a foreign possession or a colony for most of its history, Taiwan stands up for the first time to its oppressors and actively campaigns for its independence. Afraid this incident might set a precedent, Chiang Kai-shek needs to reinforce his stranglehold on the island. Forced into exile after being defeated by the Communists in mainland China, he declared martial law in May 1949, effectively smothering the flames of revolution.

Motivated by some form of paranoia, the Kuomintang systematically imprisons its political opponents on account of some alleged communist affiliations. This era of “white terror,” combined with martial law, enabled the party to strengthen the authoritarian regime. The Taiwan Garrison Command, a secret police at the service of the Kuomintang, arrests anyone who would dare to criticize the government. The press is heavily censored to prevent alternative political opinions from reaching greater audiences.

Nonetheless, the anti-colonial and independence discourse born out of incident 228 continues to flourish. In December 1979, the “Formosa incident” revealed that the fight for democracy is still prevalent. Starting as a planned pacific protest in honor of International Human Rights Day, the event is once more repressed by the Kuomintang to “maintain the social order.” Riots break out in Kaohsiung, and 152 people are indicted, including the movement’s leaders, known as the Kaohsiung 8.

The Formosa incident represents a turning point. The international press covers the events, revealing to the world the Kuomintang’s blatant violations of human rights. The Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 redefined and restricted the relationship between Taiwan and the United States, much to the Kuomintang’s dismay. Having lost its main support, the party realizes that to survive and become a legitimate political force, the political chessboard in Taiwan needs to change dramatically. In July 1987, Chiang Ching-Kuo, who took office as President in 1978, abolished the martial law. Henceforth freed from authoritarian hurdles, Taiwan is ready to embark on a new journey: democracy.

A young but robust democracy

In September 1986, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was founded, bringing in its wake a much-needed pluralism to the Taiwanese political landscape. The following year, Chiang Ching-kuo passed away, leaving his successor Lee Teng-hui at the helm of the government. In 1988, the politician was nominated as the President of the Republic of China by the National Assembly. Much like other states in Latin America, Africa, and Eastern Europe, Taiwan benefits from the "third wave of democratization" from the 1990s. In 1992, the island held its first democratic legislative elections, and in 1996, its first democratic presidential elections.

During his successive terms, Lee Teng-hui supports the democratization of Taiwan. He strives to find a compromise with Deng Xiaoping's China, liberalizes the press, and encourages freedom of speech—earning him the title of “father of Taiwanese democracy.” Breaking down the barriers set by his party, he contributes to redeeming the Kuomintang in the eyes of many Taiwanese. In 2000, the DPP—led by Chen Shui-bian—won the presidential elections, and for the first time since 1945, Taiwan was ruled by a party that was not the Kuomintang. This peaceful transfer of power to the opposition party underscores the massive strides Taiwan has taken in advancing democracy.

Nowadays, Taiwan boasts an impressive record for human rights and democracy. The non-profit organization Freedom House granted the island a score of 94/100 in terms of political rights and civil liberties 6, placing Taiwan second in Asia (after Japan with a score of 96/100) and way above other industrialized countries such as the United States (84/100), France (89/100), or South Korea (81/100).

Recent polls by the National University of Chengchi reveal, however, that a majority of Taiwanese citizens are in favor of maintaining the current status quo with China 7. The goal for the majority of the population is not to gain independence but simply to safeguard the freshly acquired democratic framework and freedoms. Although some “extreme” stances (immediate reunification or immediate independence) still exist within Taiwanese society, they remain marginal, contrary to what the Chinese propaganda might imply.

Will China invade Taiwan?

In conclusion, although a Chinese intervention in Taiwan could happen in the next decade—especially as Xi Jinping ages and the hundredth anniversary of the foundation of the People's Republic of China approaches—it would not be without its challenges. Taiwan’s specific topography and location make it arduous to invade. Extensive preparation would be required to even deploy Chinese troops on the island. Gaining the Chinese people’s approval might also prove to be complex. Due to the One Child Policy, many Chinese families only have one offspring, whom they might be reluctant to send in a war they would not be certain to return from.

Furthermore, engaging in a full-fledged war with Taiwan, and potentially with the United States, would weaken the Chinese regime even further at a time when the mismanagement of the Covid-19 crisis created a rift between citizens and the government. Internal policy issues such as the surging prices of real estate or the energy and resource shortages remain critical and must be addressed by the Chinese government. An invasion of Taiwan might therefore jeopardize the stability of the established regime—an element that would deter Chinese officials from making hasty decisions.

In that regard, Taiwan also has a role to play. By combining its technological know-how and cultural influence, Taiwan possesses the means to strengthen its network of international allies. As the trade war between China and the United States ramps up, Taiwan may once more become the focus of American and Chinese foreign policies. The DPP will therefore be obligated to strengthen its defensive capabilities—especially since the re-election of Donald Trump signals a return to protectionist measures.

In the end, although a full independence of Taiwan remains unlikely—at least in the short term—so does the prospect of a reunification. The annexation of Taiwan would represent for the Communist Chinese Party the final step in the long-pursued dream of Chinese unity, fueling its historical ambitions and asserting its legitimacy even further. Simultaneously, a failure to subdue Taiwan would incur irreparable damages to the party's stranglehold on the country. Both Taiwan and China will therefore have to tread lightly, as any rash action might very well lead to their downfall.

References

1 United Nations Development Programme. (n.d.). Super year for elections.
2 The idea of a defense “perimeter” dates back to a speech pronounced by Dean Acheson, American Secretary of State, in January 1950. In this speech, he envisions an imaginary strategic line comprised of the American allies in the Indo-Pacific region (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan…). In the context of the Cold War, this perimeter was designed to restrict the USSR and the newly founded People’s Republic of China’s operations as part of the broader containment strategy.
3 Mackinnon, A. (2025, January 8). The maps that show how China’s power is growing across the world. The Guardian.
4 Panda, A. (2025, January 8). Taiwan's latest defense budget risks falling further behind. Council on Foreign Relations.
5 Even today, the clarification of this event remains a topic of contention between the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). During her first presidential campaign in 2016, the DPP’s candidate, Tsai Ing-wen, promised, as part of her electoral program, that she would shed light on the causes of the incident 228. Indeed, the KMT has consistently refused to publish some of its archives on the matter, thus withholding crucial information.
6 Freedom House. (2025). Taiwan: Freedom in the world 2025.
7 National Chengchi University. (n.d.). School of Education and Social Science: Graduate Institute of Educational Administration and Policy.