The bitter math of Russia’s war

Russia burns through soldiers faster than factories burn oil. I want to talk about the numbers. The numbers that nobody wants to face. What if I told you Russia has had 1,140,000¹ casualties since 2022… Yes, it's true. Over one million human beings. Gone. Dead. Maimed. Shattered.

Over a more than three-year span, between February 2022 and November 4, Russia suffered 1.1 million casualties. In one day—November 4—840 soldiers got killed or wounded.

One day.

Independent journalists confirmed 219,000² Russian soldiers killed by August 2025. That's not Ukrainian propaganda. That's verified. Think about it. Five times all Soviet and Russian war deaths combined since 1945.

Afghanistan? Chechnya? Georgia? Syria? Add them up. Multiply by five. That's Ukraine.

The price of war

Every war has some brutal price, and both sides are paying it. If I talk about Russia, their soldiers killed 200-250 daily in 2024. This year, that climbed to 300 deaths per day during offensives. Three hundred families are getting the knock. Every day. This war becomes brutal every day. Those families live far away. Far North. Out of sight. Out of power. Now Russia controls 19% of Ukraine³. That includes the 7% from 2014.

Since January, Russia has gained 168 square miles monthly. Roughly 5.6 square miles daily. One million casualties for an area the size of Ohio. Last week Russia gained 34 square miles. The week before, 39 square miles. The offensive is slowing.

Russia's advance since January 2024 has been 135 meters daily along the Donetsk front. Less than two football fields. Per day.

The economic suicide note

Putin's economy is eating itself. And the country now spends nearly 40% of its federal budget on military and security. That's $144 billion in 2025. That's 6.3% of GDP—one of the highest since Soviet times.

Defense spending is disposable: tanks, drones, and shells get produced to be destroyed. This sustains jobs in the short-term but builds nothing lasting. No highways. No power plants. No schools.

GDP declined to 1.1% this year, compared to 4.1% in 2024. The first-half federal revenues were down by 16.9%. The Central Bank forecasts 0.5% growth⁴ for 2025. Last year, they projected 3.5-4%. The war machine is cannibalizing the country.

The hardware horror show

The loss on the Russian side is massive.

Artillery systems = 34,321.
Armored vehicles = 23,544.
Tanks = 11,330.
Drones = 78,928.
Helicopters = 347.
Warplanes = 428.

All of this data was released by The Independent UK⁵.

Russian equipment losses are two to five times higher than Ukrainian losses. Russia loses two to five times more equipment than Ukraine does.

The officer bloodbath

By November 7, 2025, the deaths of 5,943 Russian officers were confirmed. Included the higher military command:

Twelve Generals.
Three lieutenant generals.
Seven Major Generals.

In July, a strike on the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade headquarters killed six officers, including Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy Mikhail Gudkov⁶.

Russia's most experienced military minds. Gone. Officer deaths declined to 2-3% of casualties by November 2024. Why? Intensive recruitment of volunteer infantry who die at rates many times higher. Russia is throwing untrained bodies at Ukrainian positions.

The bitter math

Ukraine stopped publishing numbers. But experts estimate both sides are bleeding heavily. Trump said in Dec 2024 that Ukraine was sitting at roughly 400k casualties. Zelenskyy gave smaller numbers, around 43k dead and about 370k hurt.

Then in Sept 2025, the UK’s Richard Moore put Russia’s losses close to a million, with nearly 240k killed. If he’s right, Russia’s getting hit way harder, but the war still drags on.

Later, in September 2025, British spy chief Richard Moore estimated that Russia had suffered close to a million casualties, with around 240,000 of them killed. According to those figures, Russian losses far exceed Ukraine’s—yet the war keeps dragging forward.

With casualties this obscene, why doesn't the Russian military collapse?

Russia has exhausted its reserves of manufacturing capacity and manpower. But Russia hasn't shifted to a comprehensive war footing like World War II because Putin fears consumer shortages and social unrest.

It looks like Russia is trapped. Can't mobilize harder without risking revolution. Can't stop without admitting defeat. So he keeps feeding young men into the war grinder. Russia's unemployment stands at 2.3%. The labor market is distorted as men are pulled from civilian jobs to fight.

The economy is running out of workers because they're all dead or fighting. Real GDP growth has been 1% lower annually over the past decade due to Putin's policies. The economy is roughly 12% behind its expected level, and the overall loss adds up to more than $1.6 trillion.

Explaining the impossible

Russia is burning through humans and hardware at rates unseen since World War II. Territorial gains are microscopic compared to the human cost. The economy is entering recession while military spending devours everything.

Equipment losses vastly exceed Ukrainian losses, sometimes by 5:1. And Putin keeps going. This is inertia powered by authoritarianism. Over 50,000 people in Russia have asked Ukraine’s “I Want to Find”⁷ service for help locating missing soldiers.

That’s fifty thousand families still unsure whether their sons, husbands, or fathers are alive or gone. And the real issue isn’t “How many losses can Russia take?”

The tougher question is, what kind of leader looks at roughly 1.15 million casualties and still says, Keep pushing?

That’s not leadership. That’s insanity dressed up as patriotism. And the toll keeps climbing—day after day.