In relation to the growing trade or tariff war unleashed by Donald Trump's government, Chinese President Xi Jinping has stated that “China is not afraid” and that “there would be no winners”, with the government spokesman adding that “if the United States insists on taking this path, China will fight to the end”. In 2021, in Tiananmen Square in Beijing, celebrating the centenary of the founding of the Communist Party, and before a crowd, Xi, dressed in a Mao-style uniform, said that “the Chinese people will not allow any foreign force to trample, oppress or enslave them”. For his part, President Trump, after doubling down and insulting many countries - including loyal allies - by saying that they are queuing up to beg for mercy, has referred to the Chinese leader in friendly terms: “I consider him to be one of the most intelligent men in the world, and we have gotten along very well,” he added, saying that they will reach an agreement and that it should be kept in mind that the United States is the most powerful country, ”with weapons that no one can imagine.”

History teaches us that human beings go to war motivated mainly by self-interest, but also to defend honor or dignity. It is unlikely that the current trade war between two of the most powerful countries will lead to armed conflict, especially given the existence of nuclear arsenals and how devastating it would be for everyone. It has been repeatedly suggested that what is at stake is a struggle for global hegemony, repeating the old story of the emerging power, in this case China, challenging the dominant power (the United States) in what is known as the Thucydides trap.

Apparently, there is no challenge from one emerging power to another if what we are witnessing is not the result of long-term policies and conflicting visions of national interest, where the so-called emerging power has privileged developing and expanding an economic and cultural presence on all continents, based on cooperation over the military plane. There is no doubt that the Chinese government has not neglected its defense policy, as it keeps the serious humiliations, abuses, and barbarities committed especially by the British, French and Germans, but particularly by the Japanese in the so-called “century of humiliation” from 1839 to 1945, present in the historical memory.

Along with an occasionally conflictive relationship with its neighbors, particularly India, Russia, and Vietnam, Beijing maintains military pressure on Taiwan and unresolved conflicts in the China Sea with other countries. For this reason, they have strengthened defense policy in innovation, research, and new technologies, including space, as well as in artificial intelligence, which has had a multiplier effect for the entire economy. For their part, US planners, after the disappearance of the Soviet Union in 1991, sought to consolidate military superiority in Europe, subsidizing their NATO allies and relying on the economic, technological, and cultural hegemony that the United States has maintained since the last century in practically the whole world.

In this way, they expanded their military presence by incorporating the former socialist countries into the Atlantic alliance, they unleashed the bombings in Serbia, they imposed the independence of Kosovo, and they expanded the war in the Middle East. The main objective has been to isolate Russia from its natural environment, which is Europe, with the consequences that are well known. Washington's policy allocated immense resources to the installation of military bases around the world as part of its security policy, which today numbers around 800, with 200,000 soldiers deployed plus civilian personnel. Meanwhile, China, which did not maintain military bases outside its territory, inaugurated its first one in Djibouti in 2017 and another recently, a naval base on April 8 in Cambodia, meaning it only maintains two. The intention to install a third in the Solomon Islands, in the southwestern Pacific Ocean and 1,500 kilometers off the coast of Australia, has been questioned by the United States and has not materialized for now.

The big difference in strategic planning with the United States seems to be in the policy initiated in 2004, when the Beijing government opened the first Confucius Institute in South Korea, aimed at cultural promotion, and which today number 496 together with 757 “classrooms” for the teaching of Mandarin, spread over 160 countries. Added to this in 2017 was the Belt and Road Initiative to promote trade and investment.

This global deployment of Chinese culture and economy responds to a long-term vision that has in turn, allowed it to increase cooperation and trade and open up space for investments that began in natural resources and today cover a wide range, including strategic areas such as port control. The vision of Chinese planners has been demonstrated by the large sums invested in education. Between 2000 and 2023, US universities have awarded 1,200,000 master's degrees1 and 140,000 doctorates2 in various sciences to Chinese students. It has undoubtedly been a kind of subsidy from US universities to Chinese economic and scientific development by academic centers considered to be the most advanced on the planet.

Thus, between 2000 and 2024, Chinese exports to the United States grew steadily, reaching 428.9 billion dollars last year, while American exports reached only 145.5 billion in the same year, with a trade deficit of 295.4 billion dollars. Of the US Treasury bonds with which a large part of public spending is financed, China holds 760.8 billion dollars, equivalent to 2.6% of the gigantic US public debt that reaches almost 30 trillion dollars. President Trump, then, is right to be concerned about the trade deficit and public debt, a situation that has dragged on for many years of Republican and Democratic governments and threatens to weaken the strength of the United States. However, we must remember an old principle of classical economics that there is no such thing as an absolute trade balance and that trade is vital for the functioning of the economy.

How the current global economic and financial situation, which has been caused by the US administration, will be resolved will surely become clear in a short space of time due to the consequences for consumers' pockets, which could quickly translate into voting intentions for the next legislative elections to be held in the United States in 2026. Likewise, the risk of a global recession will affect everyone equally, with China having the advantage of a one-party political system and the experience of autarky and deprivation experienced in the 20th century. What is very unlikely is that President Trump's trade dispute with the world will be resolved through war. Negotiators on all sides are already in talks where, in addition to tariffs, the agenda is sure to include the future of the war in Ukraine, the Middle East, with the tragedy of the genocide in Palestine, Iran and its nuclear program, or the ongoing wars in Africa. Latin America does not have much to say in this regard, except for the concern of Mexico, due to its commercial dependence on its northern neighbor, and Panama, which sees its sovereignty over the canal threatened.

Notes

1 Source: IPEDS .
2 Source: SED. National Center for Education Statistics.