Geopolitical blocs have long helped shape the world order. Now, in a rapidly changing world, these blocs are once again becoming important.

NATO and BRICS are two of the most significant blocs in this new era. Each bloc has its own ideas about its power structure and goals.

The New Cold War: what NATO is doing in a changing world

NATO (the North Atlantic Treaty Organization) was created in 1949 as a military alliance of Western countries to combat the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

Although the Cold War is over, NATO still plays a role in shaping global security.

Today, NATO must address new issues, such as the resurgence of Russian conflict in Ukraine and China's increasing influence in world affairs.

While some view NATO as a relic of the past, it remains an essential security partner for its member states. NATO provides its member states with a means to collaborate on defense, intelligence sharing, and military cooperation, helping them maintain security and stability in an increasingly unstable world.

BRICS: the growing powerhouse

At the other end of the geopolitical spectrum is the BRICS group, a newer, more diverse coalition of emerging economies comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, formed in 2009. Initially an economic group, BRICS has grown into a forum where countries collaborate on political and security issues.

A quiet but significant shift is taking place in the global system. The world is shifting from a unipolar moment to a multipolar reality. Old alliances are returning, and new ones are forming. Most notably, NATO is expanding its strategic reach. BRICS is becoming a platform for the Global South. The contours of a new Cold War are beginning to take shape. This new Cold War is less ideological and more structural. This is not a return to the past but rather a shift in power in a world without a single center of power.

The resurgence of NATO and BRICS

The changes that have taken place in NATO in recent years demonstrate that it has become more strategic. The war in Ukraine has restored the alliance's original purpose.

With new members joining and a growing focus on the Indo-Pacific region, NATO is evolving into a major player in global security.

This change is critical to NATO's survival. As authoritarian regimes rise and regional blocs increase, NATO must adapt and expand its influence beyond its traditional borders.

At the recent 17th BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro, the group cautiously but deliberately took a step toward creating a multipolar framework. Indonesia became the 11th full member, signaling a strategic shift toward Southeast Asia. Ten other countries, including Nigeria, Malaysia, and Kazakhstan, joined as BRICS+ partners. Interestingly, Saudi Arabia was not among them, despite talk of their future participation.

This multi-level approach demonstrates the BRICS' desire to expand their influence while maintaining unity. Currently, the group accounts for over 40% of the global GDP and population and is projected to account for approximately 60% of global economic growth by 2029. More importantly, the group's strength comes not from confrontation, but from representation. Rather than dismantling existing global institutions, the BRICS group aims to represent emerging economies and push for reforms within them.

At the summit, the Rio Declaration was adopted, calling for changes to the UN Security Council, a reassessment of voting rights in the IMF and World Bank, and an end to unilateral sanctions. These demands highlight the growing dissatisfaction with postwar institutions that many feel are no longer in tune with today's reality.

We are witnessing a new kind of global competition, not based on ideology but on imbalance.

This competition is economic, technological, and institutional. China and Russia offer alternative models of governance, while Western democracies adhere to liberal principles.

The real battleground lies in areas such as artificial intelligence, climate finance, and digital infrastructure.

Countries such as India, Brazil, and Turkey are becoming strategic players and are no longer standing on the sidelines. They are moving between different blocs and influencing decisions. The straightforward bipolarity of the Cold War has faded, giving way to a more dynamic and interactive world where influence is built, not inherited.

The Middle East is evolving from a theater of proxy wars into an active participant in global affairs. Regional powers are shifting their alliances, asserting their independence, and forming new partnerships.

The resurgence of geopolitical groups like NATO and BRICS is changing the global power dynamics, especially with a divided world order in place. This shift is significant for the Middle East's geopolitical scene as we head into the future. Each bloc has its own focus—NATO is a military alliance, while BRICS serves as an economic coalition—but both have influential roles in the region through the actions of their member countries.

NATO’s impact on the Middle East

NATO's members primarily influence the Middle East, with Turkey playing an important role. Turkey’s involvement in Syria, its tricky relationship with Russia, and its position as a NATO member with strong links to the region make it quite influential. For instance, Turkey’s military presence in Syria and its balancing act between NATO duties and regional goals could really change the situation on the ground and affect its neighbors. Plus, NATO’s shared stance on Iran and its nuclear ambitions could raise tensions in the area. Even though NATO's main focus is on Europe and North America, what its members decide still sends ripples throughout the Middle East.

BRICS’ rising influence in the Middle East

On the other hand, BRICS—which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa and recently expanded to welcome Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the UAE—is becoming increasingly significant for the region. Russia’s military actions in Syria have already shifted the power balance by supporting the Assad regime and pushing back against Western influence. At the same time, China's Belt and Road Initiative is broadening its economic footprint, establishing trade and infrastructure connections with Middle Eastern nations.

This growth could really alter regional power relations, giving Middle Eastern nations new options beyond the usual Western alignments.

The fragmented world order and what it means

The bigger picture shows a fractured world order, with rising populism and nationalism and a decline in multilateralism. This disunity could throw the Middle East into further instability as global powers vie for control through proxy wars and economic power plays. Given the region's strategic importance—particularly regarding energy resources and trade routes—it’s likely to become a hotspot for this power competition. For example, Ethiopia’s increasing ties with China, highlighted during BRICS talks, illustrate how the Horn of Africa is becoming more important in global trade, which could impact the Middle East.

Economic and strategic changes

On an economic level, BRICS' efforts to lessen reliance on the U.S. dollar could be problematic for Middle Eastern oil exporters. By encouraging trade in local currencies, BRICS might challenge the petrodollar system, which could unsettle economies that depend on dollar-dominated oil revenues. Strategically, NATO’s focus on security issues, particularly regarding Russia and Iran, might influence energy security in the region, especially if tensions rise.

Rivalries and possible collaboration

Tensions between NATO and BRICS are pretty obvious. NATO has called on BRICS members to put pressure on Russia regarding conflicts like the situation in Ukraine, even threatening sanctions. Meanwhile, BRICS leaders have criticized NATO for making global instability worse. This rivalry might play out in the Middle East, where both blocs have overlapping interests, like Russia and Turkey in Syria or China and the U.S. trying to gain influence in Gulf nations. But there’s room for collaboration too, such as working together on terrorism or stabilizing energy markets, although current geopolitical divides make this seem unlikely.

The current scene

By 2025, it looks like the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East will become more multipolar, influenced by NATO's indirect role via Turkey and its policies towards Iran, as well as BRICS' expanding economic and political footprint through Russia, China, and new regional members. The fractured world order will heighten this competition, offering Middle Eastern nations chances to diversify while also risking increased instability. As global power dynamics shift, this region will remain a key battleground for the ambitions of these blocs.