The October 2024 parliamentary elections, anticipated as highly divisive, confirmed that Georgia remains a political battleground torn between European ambitions and Russian influence. In an intensely polarized social and political context, the ruling Georgian Dream party, in power since 2012, secured its fourth consecutive term with 54% of the vote, according to official data from the Electoral Commission.

However, this victory, while legitimized by the results, has sparked widespread protests and significant public unrest, especially in the capital, Tbilisi, which have persisted since the confirmation of the results. Allegations of electoral fraud and concerns over authoritarian tendencies have triggered these demonstrations, which still persist in an already Western-aligned city. Civil society groups and international observers have questioned the transparency of the electoral processes, additionally fueling the discontent, arguing that they do not fully reflect the will of the Georgian people. By December 2024, waves of public discontent reflecting a growing nationwide frustration translated into expressed solidarity with imprisoned opposition figures and the calling for immediate electoral reforms and accountability.

A sharp divide clearly defines the political landscape. Rural regions and border areas still remain strongholds of support for Georgian Dream, drawn by promises of stability and economic development. In contrast, urban centers, especially Tbilisi, are hubs of discontent. Younger generations and middle-class voters, along with scholars and civil society groups, demand a clearer path toward transparency, stronger democratic processes and institutions, and a decisive alignment with European values.

For visitors arriving in Tbilisi, the city’s Western orientation is evident in its cosmopolitan character and cultural diversity, with European flags waving just next to Georgian ones. This juxtaposition of modernity and traditions reflects the broader national divide and the struggle for Georgia’s identity between those who champion an European future and others who prioritize domestic stability and economic pragmatism.

A political crisis rooted in history and geography

Georgia's current political crisis is deeply intertwined with its historical and geographical legacy. As a nation striving for the West while retaining historical ties to Russia, the country faces relentless pressure from Moscow, determined to maintain its hold over the Caucasus. Georgia’s geographic position underscores its crucial role: situated at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, with vital access to the Black Sea, Georgia is a strategic key for Caucasus stability and an essential transit point for energy and trade corridors between East and West.

This geopolitical significance has long made Tbilisi a contested ground between Moscow and Western powers. Historically, the Kremlin has regarded Tbilisi as part of its strategic sphere of influence, perceiving its aspirations for NATO and EU membership as direct threats to its control over the Caucasus. Conversely, for Tbilisi, alignment with the West is seen as essential for ensuring a higher degree of autonomy and sovereignty and for balancing international relations and maximizing the benefits of its strategic position.

Over the past two decades, worsening relations between Russia and Georgia have been exacerbated by the big elephant in the room: the unresolved issues surrounding the separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The 2008 war marked a turning point, with Moscow deploying troops and resources to support Sukhumi and Tskhinvali and unilaterally recognizing the two regions as autonomous. These actions have left Abkhazia and South Ossetia as open wounds for Georgia, not only for their territorial importance but also as tangible symbols of Moscow’s influence over the South Caucasus. For years, Moscow has leveraged local crises and its control in Abkhazia and South Ossetia to interfere with and impede Georgia’s integration with the West. Military provocations along contested borders, alongside political, diplomatic, and economic tensions, remain calculated moves by the Kremlin to assert its authority over the region.

Recent developments further underscored these dynamics. In December 2024, taking advantage of the international crisis and the internal discontent, Russian military activities along the South Ossetian Administrative Border Line (ABL) intensified with the deployment of troops and the construction of additional fortifications. Military movements, together with hybrid warfare strategies, aimed at deepening international divisions by fostering skepticism about the western aspiration of the country and generating diffused discontent by the population on the government's ability to counter Russian influence.

Europe in focus? Democratic ambitions and authoritarian shadows

Despite these internal and external challenges, Georgia’s European aspirations remain steadfast. The country’s attainment of EU candidate status in 2023, alongside Ukraine and Moldova, marked a significant step in its journey toward integration with the West, which began in 2014 with the signing of the Association Agreement and has always been followed up by a great resilience by the population and Georgia’s pro-European movements.

Yet, recent political developments have raised concerns about backsliding. The October 2024 election results reconfirmed the Georgian Dream party’s rule, raising concerns about an alarming authoritarian drift. Evidence of this trend includes the passage in the last spring of the controversial "foreign agents law,” mirroring Russian legislation. The law, which ideologically aligns Tbilisi closer to Moscow, significantly curtails democracy by substantially hindering the presence of international organizations and foreign media. Moreover, the government’s recent decision to suspend EU accession talks further signals a pro-Russian shift in Georgia’s political trajectory.

However, with the international community struggling to foster adequate support, despite the high-level visits by EU and NATO officials in the wake of the elections, and the opposition parties that still struggle to present a unified front, there seems to be little room to counter the Georgian Dream government.

These changes risk isolating Tbilisi at a critical moment for the region, already at the center of tensions between Russia and the West. The Moscow invasion of Ukraine has underscored the importance for Moscow of its "near abroad" and reinforced the West’s need to support countries transitioning to democracy like Georgia. The conflict between Moscow and Kyiv has highlighted the red line represented by NATO’s expansion, with Georgia’s aspirations to join the alliance mirroring the challenges faced by Ukraine, including military pressures, disinformation campaigns, and unresolved territorial crises (Abkhazia and South Ossetia).

A future hanging by a thread: Georgia between NATO, the EU, and Russia

Georgia’s future appears more uncertain than ever, hanging by a fragile thread shaken by internal and external pressures. While a significant portion of the population aspires to join NATO and the EU, achieving this goal is becoming increasingly difficult due to the nation’s struggles to address domestic challenges and withstand external influences.

In this intricate scenario, the international community’s role has never been more critical, as Georgia requires robust and sustained support. The European Union and NATO, aware of Georgia’s geopolitical and strategic significance, must actively engage in reinforcing its democratic institutions to counterbalance Russian influence. Enhanced economic and security partnerships, alongside targeted investments in Georgia’s energy sector, could strengthen Tbilisi's civil society apparatus and offer a strong alternative to external Russian influence.

A careful balance of support for civil society and efforts to avoid escalation with Moscow will be essential. Much like Ukraine, support for Georgia is a test of the West’s resolve to counter Russian revisionism in its near abroad, threatening not only individual nations but the stability of the post-Soviet space as a whole. In this context, potential diplomatic scenarios offer varying paths forward. Deepened engagement by the EU and NATO could catalyze democratic reforms and bolster economic resilience, with, however, the high risk of heightening tensions with Moscow. Alternatively, a preservation of the status quo might stall progress and leave Georgia vulnerable to Russian provocations. Ensuring, in this way, stronger and renewed regional partnerships, such as those with Turkey and Azerbaijan, offers an alternative route with Georgia able to potentially balance the external influences advancing its economic and security interests.

Backing Tbilisi to support and secure Georgia’s sovereignty and independence, therefore, transcends the defense of democratic principles—it is also a primarily strategic necessity for regional stability. The stakes extend well beyond Georgia, influencing the security of the broader Caucasus and Black Sea regions. As the battle for Georgia’s soul unfolds, the country’s ability to navigate these challenges will determine whether it can become a resilient democracy and a symbol of perseverance in an increasingly polarized world. The outcome of this struggle will shape not just Georgia’s destiny but also the geopolitical balance of a critical region at the crossroads of East and West.