Many implications have been identified as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change1. These widely reported impacts include rising temperatures, more severe weather effects, loss of species, food shortages, and health risks. Another consequence of climate change that is often overlooked and will impact most countries in the world is climate migration.

With increasing temperatures and intensified weather forecasts, millions of people will be forced to leave their countries and, in some cases, continents. It has been predicted by the Institute for Economics and Peace that by 2050 there could be 1.2 billion climate migrants2. Over the past decade, migrants in the world have doubled, with climate disasters already displacing millions of people every year. Statistics from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre show that in 2022 alone, a record of 32.6 million people were forcibly displaced due to natural disasters.

This can add enormous pressure on societal processes but also on politics, with a primary point on the right-wing agenda being immigration. Furthermore, conflict can arise regarding ideological, social, or political subjects. Scarce resources within the country can be drained, with an increased clash between citizens. In addition, the European Parliament states that climate migration will increase pressure on infrastructure and services, which could include schools and hospitals. These predicted impacts have led to many experts describing climate migration as a significant geopolitical risk.

The urgency of a plan to deal with climate migrants3 is becoming increasingly acute. As large populations will need to migrate, receiving cities and countries need to be able to integrate these people. At present, experts say that governments need to identify the links between climate change and migration. Severe weather4 is affecting already displaced people and forcing more people to flee their homes. Therefore, it is essential that governments plan for the incoming mass migrations, with more resources being put into how to accommodate these refugees.

Currently, policies5 and legislation regarding climate migrants are deficient, which has been a reoccurring theme in media and reports. Firstly, legislation on the rights of climate refugees is not complete. There is a legal void in the rights of climate migrants, as they do not classify under the 1951 Refugee Convention. Although some nations are proposing policies, there is not a real definition of climate refugees, nor do they fall under the same category as those fleeing from discriminatory persecution. This means that these refugees cannot seek asylum or refugee status, if they state the reason for migration as climate change. The lack of legal recognition results in a lack of protection and rights for the refugees.

Research shows that some of the mitigation measures involve creating new cities to accommodate the millions of displaced people. Countries in regions with cooler conditions, will need to host the climate refugees and create new cities in land that is becoming ice-free. This will often be in places in northern latitudes.

However, climate migration can also be seen as an opportunity for countries with an ageing society. European countries such as Germany have an ageing population, with a large part of the workforce expected to retire and leave gaps in the workforce. Immigration can help countries to mitigate this, by increasing the citizens part of the active workforce and filling labour gaps. The predicted climate migration to countries within northern latitudes, e.g., Germany, can be extremely advantageous and emphasises the urgency6 for governments to prepare for the surges.

This shows that climate migration7 is a multi-faceted subject with many predicted impacts. Experts warn of the urgency to plan for it, as it is likely to affect many parts of society. Furthermore, an important part highlighted in literature and reports regarding climate refugees, is the need for international legal recognition for the refugees.

References

1 Causes and Effects of Climate Change.
2 A systematic review of climate migration research: gaps in existing literature.
3 The concept of 'climate refugee'. Towards a possible definition.
4 Governments urged to confront effects of climate crisis on migrants.
5 Addressing the politics of the climate–migration–conflict link.
6 The century of climate migration: why we need to plan for the great upheaval.
7 The future of climate migration.