Recently, an important study by The Economist examined the tailwinds and headwinds to US GDP from Trump's second-term policies.

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The headwinds from tariffs on real incomes, the drag from immigration and reduced labour supply, and the slowdown from uncertainty and reduced capital expenditure—taken together—have accounted for a 0.8 per cent slowdown in GDP growth, as shown. The weight of evidence from the OECD, IMF, Goldman Sachs, Penn Wharton, and independent economists confirms that Trump's tariff and spending policies have reduced U.S. GDP growth by roughly 1 to 1.5 percentage points.

The future prospects don't look very positive. Tariffs are still fluctuating, increasing business and family doubts. The energy shock from the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will depress family and corporate income and investment. Nonetheless, despite the obstacles that Trump has put in the way, the American GDP may grow as much as 4% this first quarter. This is a tribute to the spectacular power of the American economy.

Continued denial of climate change and actions against climate improvement damage the US economy and the health of Americans.

The evidence for rapid climate change is compelling:

  • Global temperature is rising.

  • The ocean is getting warmer.

  • The ice sheets are shrinking.

  • Glaciers are retreating.

  • Snow cover is decreasing.

  • The sea level is rising.

  • Arctic sea ice is declining.

  • Ocean acidification is increasing.

  • Extreme events are increasing in frequency.

The number of record high temperature events in the United States has been increasing, while the number of record low temperature events has been decreasing, since 1950. The U.S. has also witnessed an increase in intense rainfall and forest fire events.

The Earth's climate has changed throughout history. In the last 800,000 years, there have been eight cycles of ice ages and warmer periods, with the end of the last ice age. about 11,700 years ago, marking the beginning of the modern climate era — and of human civilisation.

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The current warming trend differs because human activities have produced carbon dioxide, which has reached concentrations in the atmosphere never before observed, as shown above. Higher CO₂ concentrations allow less light and heat to escape from Earth, warming it. This is the greenhouse effect, which is also what happens to the temperature inside a greenhouse on Earth. The current warming trend is different because human activities have produced the atmospheric gases, primarily carbon dioxide, that have trapped more of the Sun’s energy in the Earth.

To reduce carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels, technologies powered by the sun and wind have been developed. Photovoltaic modules and wind turbines have seen impressive cost reductions. The cost of producing electricity from these sources is usually less expensive than that from fossil fuels. In fact, in multiple scenarios assessed by the IEA, solar is the cheapest energy source available for new generation capacity. This energy source is also local, so it is not dependent on distant or foreign sources. Solar is available to small users, family homes, and large grid producers. It is revolutionising our energy systems and economies. Intelligent power grids with storage are required to take advantage of consumers who may also be producers.

A related technological development is the electric vehicle, which allows fuel savings and reduced carbon emissions compared to a traditional combustion-engine vehicle. Efficient, low-cost batteries are required. There is an ongoing global technological race in energy storage, photovoltaic panels, and electric vehicles. And China is winning! Trump's mistakes on climate change are hindering American industry in these vital sectors and delaying the relative job market.

Furthermore, about 91 thousand Americans die annually from fossil fuel air pollution, contributing to 10,350 preterm births and 216,000 cases of childhood-onset asthma. Low-income families and historically marginalised communities in the US bear a disproportionate burden of these premature deaths, some of them coming from the core MAGA Americans.

The initiatives of Trump's second term have impacted the Americans of the core of the MAGA base. For brevity, a summary assessment of Trump's major initiatives and their impact on the MAGA base follows.

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Trump's most loyal voters — rural, non-college-educated, working-class whites — are among those facing the sharpest material disadvantages from his own agenda.

Instead, the rich, like Trump, have fared very well in the second term. Based on an analysis by Americans for Tax Fairness (ATF) and the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP), the top 1% of households, identified as those with annual incomes of roughly $1 million or more, are projected to receive over $1 trillion in tax cuts over the next decade.

A White House official said the administration's approach follows a similar playbook to Trump's first term: using tax cuts and regulatory changes to spur investment. Demand for luxury goods has surged — sales of $10 million-plus mansions are booming, and demand for luxury yachts and private jets is up, partly attributed to the 2025 tax law. Billionaire wealth in the United States reached a record $8.2 trillion in 2025, up from $6.7 trillion the prior year, a 22% increase in a single year.

In conclusion, Trump's second term has seen extraordinary economic impacts. GDP growth has been slowed by the administration's policy. Climate denial policies have significant negative impacts, hampering industry in key technological sectors, delaying new labour markets, and harming the health of Americans. The core MAGA Americans have suffered losses from second-term actions and legislation. Instead, the rich, like Trump, have been enriched again, as in the first term, increasing economic and social inequality.