Successive developments have been redrawing the contours of the Middle East since the events of October 7, 2023. It was not conceivable that military confrontations between Israel and Palestine would result in further Chinese penetration into the Middle East... unless the goal from the outset was to limit Chinese influence by creating a series of political and military interactions that would make the Middle East an impenetrable barrier against the Chinese dragon... but the opposite has happened.

China conducted its first joint air exercise with Egypt, called “Eagles of Civilization 2025,” between mid-April and early May.

Before some had time to recover from the shock, China announced in early June that it would begin implementing a one-year visa exemption pilot program for citizens of four Gulf countries: Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain. This is an extension of previous agreements with the UAE and Qatar since 2018. All Gulf Cooperation Council countries are now covered by the exemption policy, reflecting the broadening scope of Gulf-Chinese cooperation.

The decision has attracted widespread interest in business circles, especially with more than 22 direct flights per week between Saudi Arabia and China, a number that is likely to increase in the coming period. The visa exemption policy is inseparable from China's political vision to strengthen its partnerships in the region, but is also used as a diplomatic tool in Beijing's efforts to consolidate economic and cultural alliances in the Middle East. According to observers, this initiative may contribute to accelerating the implementation of joint projects within the Belt and Road Initiative and open up new horizons in investment, tourism, and services.

The notion of a Chinese conspiracy to dominate the Middle East is a distraction from the real issue Western failures have paved the way for China’s growing profitable and artistic ties in the region. The U.S. and Europe’s isolationist programs have created a vacuum that China has filled, heightening the Middle East’s disposition from the West. Western visa restrictions, like the Schengen system, illustrate this insulation.

Middle Eastern individualities face near- invincible walls to carrying legal entry for trade or profitable engagement with Europe and the U.S. High consular freights and strict programs further discourage licit exchange. Meanwhile, China welcomes Middle Eastern entrepreneurs with open requests and accessible entry, fostering trade routes that decreasingly bypass Europe.

Mediterranean centrals, in particular, have shifted their force chains toward Beijing, a trend supported by trade data. China’s approach also benefits from its political impartiality. Unlike Western powers with social patrimonies and histories of conflict in the Middle East, China has no similar baggage. It avoids trap in the region’s complex political controversies and choruses from tying profitable hookups to mortal rights or internal governance issues.

This hands- off station — neither praised nor blamed then has allowed China to engage without generating significant opposition or attracting deportees, unlike Western nations that frequently face similar pressures. European policymakers should review their fear- driven narratives, which have inadvertently bolstered China’s indigenous success. Rather than fueling conspiracy propositions, addressing Western isolationism could help rebalance influence in the Middle East.

China’s growing influence in the middle east

Over the past two decades, China has emerged as a significant player in the Middle East, reshaping the region’s economic and geopolitical landscape through strategic investments, trade partnerships, and cultural initiatives. Often referred to as the "Chinese Middle East," this phenomenon reflects Beijing’s deliberate efforts to expand its influence in a region historically dominated by Western powers, particularly the United States and Europe.

Unlike Western engagement, which has often been entangled with security commitments and political interventions, China’s approach emphasizes economic cooperation, non-interference, and cultural exchange, leveraging its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to forge deep ties with Middle Eastern nations. This report analyzes the successes of China’s economic penetration, highlights key agreements, evaluates its competitive edge against Western influence, and explores the cultural and civilizational dimensions that underpin this expansion, while projecting its future trajectory and indicators of success.

Economic successes and key agreements

China’s economic presence in the Middle East has grown exponentially, driven by its status as the region’s largest consumer of oil and gas, as well as its role as a major trading partner and investor. Over the past 20 years, China’s trade with the Middle East has more than tripled, reaching over $330 billion in 2022, with significant growth in energy imports, infrastructure projects, and technology transfers. The BRI, launched in 2013, has been the cornerstone of this expansion, positioning the Middle East as a critical hub for both land and maritime routes connecting Asia, Africa, and Europe.

Key agreements underscore China’s deepening ties. In 2016, President Xi Jinping’s visits to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Iran resulted in 52 cooperation agreements covering energy, infrastructure, and trade, including the Yanbu Petrochemical Complex in Saudi Arabia, the Suez Economic and Trade Cooperation Zone in Egypt, and the Tehran Metro project in Iran. In 2021, China and Iran signed a 25-year comprehensive cooperation agreement, promising up to $400 billion in investments, primarily in energy and infrastructure, though progress has been slower than anticipated due to Iran’s economic challenges and international sanctions.

Saudi Arabia, a key U.S. ally, has also deepened ties with China, signing strategic deals in 2022 with tech giant Huawei and expanding cooperation in renewable energy and green investments. China’s engagement extends beyond energy. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries—Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain—have seen increased Chinese investment in renewable energy, financial markets, and tourism.

For instance, Chinese firms dominate the renewable energy supply chain, aligning with the GCC’s clean energy ambitions, while financial institutions channel funds into Saudi energy projects. In the technology sector, Chinese AI companies and Huawei have secured contracts for 5G networks and digital infrastructure across 14 regional telecom operators since 2018, despite U.S. concerns about security risks. These agreements reflect China’s pragmatic approach, offering cost-effective, rapid solutions compared to Western firms burdened by regulatory constraints.

Cultural and civilizational dimensions

China’s economic success is bolstered by its strategic use of cultural and civilizational engagement, which minimizes barriers to trade and fosters goodwill. Unlike Western powers, China has no colonial legacy in the Middle East, allowing it to present itself as a neutral partner unburdened by historical grievances.

This absence of a colonial past, combined with Beijing’s policy of non-interference in domestic politics, resonates with Middle Eastern governments wary of Western criticism on human rights or governance issues. The establishment of Confucius Institutes has been a key tool in promoting Chinese language and culture, enhancing soft power. By 2019, China had set up 203 Confucius Institutes globally, including several in the Middle East, such as in Egypt and the UAE, fostering cultural exchange and facilitating trade by reducing cultural distance.

Empirical studies show that Confucius Institutes significantly boost trade growth in BRI countries, particularly where cultural differences are smaller. For example, China-Egypt relations have flourished since Xi’s 2016 visit, with increased people-to-people exchanges and cultural interactions, though the COVID-19 pandemic temporarily disrupted progress.

China’s cultural strategy is closely intertwined with its economic objectives, highlighting the importance of mutual respect and collaborative development. Xi Jinping’s 2014 initiative for establishing a “China-Arab community with a shared future” during the China-Arab States Cooperation Forum provided significant political impetus for cultural and economic partnerships.

Events such as the "Crossing the River by Feeling the Stones" exhibition in Saudi Arabia illustrate parallels between China's economic reforms and the Gulf region’s modernization efforts, emphasizing common values of long-term vision and economic advancement. These initiatives cultivate a narrative positioning China as a partner in stability and development, in stark contrast to existing views of Western interventionism.

Geopolitical competition: undermining western influence

China's ascendancy in the Middle East poses a significant challenge to the historical supremacy of the U.S. and Europe, which have traditionally emphasized security and political leverage. While the U.S. upholds a strong military presence and defense collaborations with nations such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, its economic participation has not kept pace, hindered by regulatory constraints and protracted project timelines.

Europe, on the other hand, grapples with issues such as stringent visa regulations and elevated consular fees, which restrict access for Middle Eastern entrepreneurs to European markets. These barriers, often described as an "Iron Curtain," have prompted regional capitals to pivot towards Beijing, which provides open markets and more efficient visa processes.

China's policy of non-interference confers a strategic advantage, enabling it to interact with competing powers like Saudi Arabia and Iran simultaneously. The 2023 reconciliation agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, facilitated by China, illustrates this diplomatic agility and bolsters Beijing's standing as a mediator. In contrast, U.S. approaches, including sanctions, have limited its effectiveness in the region.

It seems that the situation regarding Iran or the pressure on Gulf states to limit Chinese tech partnerships has contributed to some challenges in relations with regional allies. For instance, Gulf states have expressed some concerns about U.S. reliability, which they perceive as evidenced by Washington's perceived inaction on Iran's nuclear program. These concerns have prompted countries like Saudi Arabia to explore deeper ties with China, including in military technology like drones and ballistic missiles.

However, it is important to recognize that China's influence is not without limits. It is important to acknowledge that the U.S. continues to play a crucial role in regional security, a position that is also respected by other nations. It is understood that Middle Eastern countries place a high value on China's economic offerings. However, there is a degree of caution regarding the potential of over-dependence.

The objective is to seek a balanced relationship with both powers, with the aim of maximizing benefits for all parties involved. Europe, with its cultural proximity and historical ties, has the potential to counter China's influence by enhancing economic engagement and easing visa restrictions. However, internal political concerns and bureaucratic inertia may be obstacles to implementing such reforms.

Future prospects and indicators of success

It is important to share our thoughts on future prospects and indicators of success. Over the next decade, China's influence in the Middle East is likely to increase, driven by its economic weight and strategic diplomacy. The Belt and Road Initiative will continue to play a central role in China's foreign engagement, with projects such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and Red Sea infrastructure facilitating increased connectivity.

Digital technology, particularly artificial intelligence and 5G networks, is expected to be a key area of growth, with Chinese companies showing interest in smart city projects and digital infrastructure in the GCC. In my view, renewable energy partnerships, which are in line with the goals of Gulf Vision 2030, will deepen relations, as evidenced by green investments between Saudi Arabia and China.

China's ability to compete with Western influence depends on its ability to maintain economic momentum and deal with regional complexities. For example, the Gaza crisis posed a delicate challenge for China, as it seeks to support Iran while maintaining positive relations with Israel and Arab countries. Beijing's focus on energy security and economic diversification is likely to lead to increased investments in Iran and Iraq, which may counter US sanctions through oil imports and infrastructure projects.

Cultural interaction is likely to continue to play an important role. The expansion of Confucius Institutes, student exchanges, and tourism—as evidenced by the doubling of flights from China to the Gulf Cooperation Council countries since pre-COVID levels—will strengthen people-to-people ties. China’s vision of a “shared future” and its portrayal as a “civilized country” appear to align with the Middle East’s aspirations for multipolarity, which aims to reduce the region’s dependence on Western hegemony.

Potential indicators of success include continued trade growth, increased foreign direct investment, and the number of Belt and Road Initiative projects completed. For example, trade with the GCC is expected to reach $500 billion by 2030, driven by energy and technology.

The institutionalization of China's presence through forums such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which admitted Iran in 2023 and includes several Gulf states as dialogue partners, can be seen as a deepening of political influence. However, it is important to consider potential challenges that could limit Beijing's gains, including regional instability, technological competition between the US and China, and possible overreliance on Chinese investments.