The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria marks a pivotal moment in the country's history, with far-reaching implications for all stakeholders, including the Kurdish population. The Kurds, who have long aspired to autonomy or even statehood in northern Syria, now face a complex and uncertain future.

This report respectfully explores the potential consequences of Assad's downfall on the Kurdish dream, particularly in light of the United States' withdrawal of support and the escalating military threats from Turkey. Drawing on the provided references and additional sources, this analysis explores the internal and external challenges facing the Kurds and assesses their prospects in a post-Assad Syria.

The current situation

The collapse of the Assad regime has created a power vacuum in Syria, opening the door to a reconfiguration of political and military dynamics. For the Kurds, who have established a semi-autonomous administration in northeastern Syria (Rojava), this represents both an opportunity and a threat.

The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have played a crucial role in the fight against ISIS and have sought to consolidate their control over the region and advance their political agenda. However, the withdrawal of U.S. troops, who had provided critical support to the SDF, has left the Kurds vulnerable to external pressures, particularly from Turkey.

Leadership vacuum and fragmentation

The ongoing situation in Syria, with the Assad regime no longer in power, has led to significant challenges in terms of the country's political and military landscape. The Kurds, who have been working together under the SDF, are facing difficulties in maintaining unity and governance in their territories. The lack of a central authority in Syria could potentially result in increased competition among different groups, including Kurdish factions, for control over resources and territory.

Economic devastation

The ongoing conflict has had a considerable impact on Syria's economy, and the Kurdish-held regions have been affected as well. Rebuilding infrastructure, providing basic services, and reviving economic activity will require significant investment and international support. The Kurds' capacity to sustain their administration will be determined by their ability to address these economic challenges.

Inter-factional conflicts

The Kurds' aspirations for autonomy or federalism may not fully align with the agendas of other Syrian factions, such as the Syrian National Army (SNA) and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). These groups, which are supported by Turkey and other regional actors, may not fully align with the Kurdish aspirations, which could potentially lead to heightened hostilities and undermine the SDF's influence.

Turkish threats

Turkey sees the presence of the Kurdish forces in the northern part of Syria as a threat to its own security. Turkey has linked the SDF to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which it considers a terrorist organisation. The collapse of the Assad regime has emboldened Turkey to intensify its military operations against the Kurds, including cross-border incursions and the establishment of a "safe zone" in northern Syria. These actions may be seen as a challenge to Kurdish autonomy and could potentially lead to further displacement and instability.

Withdrawal of U.S. troops

The United States' decision to withdraw its troops from Syria has left the Kurds exposed to Turkish aggression and has weakened their bargaining position in any future political settlement. While the U.S. has historically supported the SDF as a partner in the fight against ISIS, its shifting priorities and focus on other regional issues have perhaps diminished its commitment to Kurdish security.

Regional and international dynamics

The fall of the Assad regime has reshaped the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East, with regional and international powers seeking to establish influence in Syria. Iran and Russia, key allies of the Assad regime, may seek to reassert their presence in Kurdish-held areas, while Arab states and European countries could play a role in shaping the post-conflict order. The Kurds' capacity to navigate these intricate dynamics will be essential to their survival and success.

The future of the Kurds in Syria

It seems that the Kurds' immediate goal is likely to be the preservation of their semi-autonomous administration in northeastern Syria. While the establishment of an independent Kurdish state remains a long-term aspiration, it is not without its challenges, including opposition from regional and international actors. One possible alternative that the Kurds may consider is a federal model within a decentralised Syrian state, which could be seen as a compromise between their aspirations and the realities on the ground.

Military and security concerns

The SDF's capacity to safeguard Kurdish territories against Turkish incursions and other potential threats will be crucial in determining their future. The Kurds may seek to strengthen their military capabilities through alliances with other Syrian factions or international partners, but this could come at the cost of their political independence.

Political negotiations

Securing the rights and interests of the Kurdish people in any future political settlement in Syria will require their active involvement. However, it is important to acknowledge the challenges they face in gaining recognition and legitimacy, as evidenced by their exclusion from previous negotiations, such as the Astana and Geneva processes. In order to be included in the post-Assad political order, it would be advisable for the Kurds to build alliances with other Syrian groups and international actors.

International support

While the U.S. withdrawal has weakened the Kurds' position, they may still seek support from other international actors, such as European countries and Russia. However, it is important to note that this support is likely to be conditional and may require the Kurds to make concessions on their political goals.

Perspectives and prophecies

The collapse of the Assad regime has created both opportunities and challenges for the Kurds in Syria. While the fall of the regime has opened the door to greater autonomy and self-governance, the Kurds face significant internal and external pressures that threaten their aspirations. The withdrawal of U.S. support and the escalating Turkish military threat have left the Kurds vulnerable, while the fragmentation of Syria's political landscape complicates their efforts to secure a lasting settlement.

The Kurds' future will depend on their ability to navigate these challenges, build alliances, and adapt to the evolving realities on the ground. The realisation of the Kurdish aspiration for autonomy or statehood will require a combination of political acumen, military resilience, and international support.